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A Heckit Model of Sales Dynamics in Turkish Art Auctions: 2005-2008

机译:土耳其艺术品拍卖中的销售行为Heckit模型:2005-2008年

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摘要

Unsold artworks are excluded from a traditional hedonic price index as no observable price can be attached to them. The question is whether the exclusion of unsold artworks lead to a sample selection bias in the traditionally constructed art price indices. In this paper, we examine the art auction sales performance in Turkey for the period between January 2005 and February 2008 using a unique database which contains 11,212 sales records including unsold items. We employ the two-stage Heckit model. Our empirical model combines demand-side influences with supply-side characteristics as well as the auction microstructure. We find that there is no sample selection bias created by unsold works. This finding also provides an explanation for why the attempts in the literature to identify which works are (not) sold turned out to be largely unsuccessful. On the behavioural side, we confirm the existence of the â€afternoon effect” in both sales rates and in sales prices in Turkish art auctions. There is also some evidence for the â€death effect” and â€master effect” in both sales rates and sales prices. Finally, we find that the returns in the Turkish art market serve as a hedge against inflation in our sample period
机译:未售出的艺术品被排除在传统享乐价格指数之外,因为无法附加可观察到的价格。问题是,排除未售出的艺术品是否会导致传统构造的艺术品价格指数出现样本选择偏差。在本文中,我们使用唯一的数据库检查了土耳其在2005年1月至2008年2月期间的艺术品拍卖销售表现,该数据库包含11,212条销售记录,包括未售出的物品。我们采用两阶段Heckit模型。我们的经验模型将需求方面的影响与供应方面的特征以及拍卖的微观结构结合在一起。我们发现未售出的作品没有样本选择偏见。这一发现也提供了一个解释,说明为什么文献中试图确定(不)出售哪些作品的尝试在很大程度上没有成功。在行为方面,我们确认土耳其艺术品拍卖的销售率和销售价格均存在“下午效应”。也有一些证据表明销售率和销售价格都具有“死亡效应”和“主效应”。最后,我们发现,在我们的样本期内,土耳其艺术品市场的收益可以抵御通胀

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